The crypto market is once again volatile and causing polarizing opinions. It has been an eventful few days, as news broke that the US had launched airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites, sparking fears of a wider war in the Middle East. For over a week, Israel and Iran exchanged fire, and after America entered the conflict with “obliterating” strikes (according to Trump), Iran responded by launching missiles at a US base in Qatar. Tensions skyrocketed, with US embassies limiting access, airspace closures across multiple countries and fears of cyberattacks and oil route disruptions. Despite all this chaos and the terrifying real-life ramifications behind it, Bitcoin and other top cryptocurrencies showed their resilience with an initial minor dip, followed by a solid bullish breakout. This was a predictable pattern for crypto, matching many of its previous short-term cycles when world tensions have arisen.

Back in February 2022 when the Russia-Ukraine war began, crypto prices plunged at first. But within days, the market bounced back stronger, leaving behind those who panic sold in fear. Similarly, October 2024 saw initial sell-offs after the Israel-Palestine conflict’s presence escalated in the mainstream media. However, just as we’re seeing now, prices dropped sharply as war headlines flooded social media … and then quickly reversed when the crowd turned overly fearful. As of the time of this writing, this latest conflict has looked like a classic case of markets moving opposite to what the crowd expects, and has been even more punishing to panicking traders when Iran and Israel called a truce.

With Bitcoin quickly rebounding as high as $108.2K *(as of Wednesday, June 25), we’re seeing the power of fear pushing out retail as whales are able to line their pockets. We’ve preached not to blindly follow the crowd in times of global tension. If sell-offs occur without any confirmation that news has really reached its worst-case scenario, a mild dip is likely being caused by irrational retailers reacting prematurely.

The threat of war may be dominating the news cycle, but when it comes to cryptocurrency, emotional reactions usually get punished rather than rewarded. Take a look at how differently trader price predictions are appearing across social media, now that Bitcoin has enjoyed a 72-hour rebound:

It’s staggeringly clear how much Bitcoin’s price instantly began to rebound just as traders were spamming for sub-$70K BTC prices in the heat of the US/Iran conflict on Jun 22, 2025. Are global conflict peak fear moments always an automatic buy signal for cryptocurrencies? Absolutely not. They certainly aren’t all going to be instantly diffused, false alarms, as this current situation is. If you rely upon all rumors to be “nothing” of significance, then you set yourself up to get burned by something that really does cause a market crash (such as the FTX collapse, post-COVID 19 interest rate rises or even the Mt. Gox hack of over a decade ago).

In order to stay informed and ready for any scenario, let’s recap last week’s events and see how Bitcoin quietly snuck back on the tail end of it all to within 2% of its $112K all-time high from May 2025.

The Airstrikes That Started it All

The path to US involvement began on Jun 12, 2025, when Israel launched a surprise military strike on Iranian targets, escalating an already fragile regional standoff. The immediate impact was felt across global markets, with over $335 million liquidated from the crypto space in just 60 minutes. The move triggered panic selling among traders, as social media exploded with concerns of an all-out war. Iran quickly vowed to respond, and tensions soared over the following days as both nations traded threats and missile fire. These developments ultimately pulled the United States into the conflict, setting the stage for a wider geopolitical crisis.

On Jun 22, 2025, President Donald Trump confirmed that US forces had launched direct airstrikes on three nuclear sites in Iran: Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. These sites house major parts of Iran’s nuclear program, and Trump claimed they were “completely and totally obliterated.” The move came after more than a week of increasing tensions between Iran and Israel, as the two countries had already been exchanging attacks. Trump warned that if Iran retaliated, future strikes would be “far greater.” Global leaders immediately voiced concern that the US was now fully involved in the conflict.

This news triggered a wave of attention on social media, especially among cryptocurrency traders. The word “Iran” spiked in mentions, according to data from Santiment. But interestingly, Bitcoin prices didn’t move much right away. One possible reason is that the strikes happened late at night on a weekend in the US, when trading volume tends to be lower. Still, investors were watching closely, knowing that events like this can often lead to big swings in the market if the situation worsens.

Iran’s Retaliation, and Global Response

Iran didn’t stay quiet for long. On June 24, just two days after the US airstrikes, Iran fired 14 ballistic missiles at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which houses around 10,000 American troops. President Trump downplayed the attack, calling it a “very weak response,” and said that most of the missiles were intercepted. However, it still marked a dangerous moment, as Iran directly struck a major US military facility for the first time in this conflict.

Governments across the Middle East responded quickly. Qatar condemned the attack, saying that it had violated its national sovereignty, while several nearby countries — including Kuwait, Iraq and the UAE — closed their airspaces. US embassies in the region told staff to shelter in place, and heightened security alerts spread across the Persian Gulf. These types of events raise fears about oil supply disruption, cyberattacks and even the safety of civilians abroad — all factors that can cause temporary market panic, including in crypto.

Ceasefire Tensions and a Possible Turning Point

After days of back-and-forth attacks, a ceasefire between Israel and Iran was declared and, surprisingly, seems to be holding for the time being. Both sides have claimed victory, even though the situation remains tense. Trump declared the war over, saying the US strikes had destroyed Iran’s nuclear capabilities. However, leaked intelligence reports suggest the facilities were only set back a few months, not completely destroyed.

Despite the mixed reports, the ceasefire has led to a slight easing of tensions. For crypto markets, this calmer period could allow prices to recover further. In past conflicts, stabilization after major news has often coincided with bullish market activity, and many KOL’s are latching on to this notion.

Crypto’s Ties to Stocks Over the Years

Over the past four years, cryptocurrency markets have begun behaving like the stock market more than ever before. This shift became especially noticeable in early 2022, when the US Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to combat inflation. Both stocks and crypto fell sharply in response, showing that macroeconomic policies — not just crypto-specific news — were moving digital asset prices. Since then, traders have increasingly been recognizing how tightly correlated crypto is with broader financial markets, particularly the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100.

This growing connection has major implications during geopolitical events like the recent Iran-Israel-US conflict. Historically, war headlines have sparked short-term panic-selling in crypto, especially among retail traders. But with the S&P 500 pushing toward new all-time highs, despite global turmoil and unresolved tariff threats, crypto markets are showing surprising resilience. That strength in equities has provided a kind of floor for digital assets like Bitcoin, reminding investors that global fear doesn't always lead to long-term declines. If this correlation continues, watching inflation data and stock performance may be more important than simply reacting to war-related headlines.

Stay Tuned

The past week’s events — from US airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites to Iran’s missile response and the shaky ceasefire that followed — have stirred global fears of another major war. But for the crypto market, this is familiar territory. As we’ve seen during the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Palestine conflict, price dips caused by war headlines are often short-lived. Large investors tend to buy when retail traders panic, leading to market rebounds that punish those who gave in too quickly to fear. The latest war scare may follow that same script, especially now that a ceasefire is in place and immediate violence appears to be cooling.

What comes next for crypto largely depends upon how the crowd reacts moving forward. If investors continue to expect the worst and sell off in fear, whales could once again take advantage and accumulate assets at a discount. But if the crowd becomes too greedy and prices rise too quickly, it could signal a short-term top. Either way, the market will likely move in the opposite direction of the majority of investors. In this unpredictable global environment, staying level-headed and avoiding emotional decisions could be the smartest move for anyone watching the crypto space.

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in the post are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.