Throughout 2025, it has undeniably felt like every move made by U.S. policymakers has the potential to shake up the crypto world. Whether it’s the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady, lawmakers pushing forward new rules for stablecoins, or Congress trying to pass a giant budget bill, traders are glued to headlines.

But as you likely know, it's not just about what these decisions are... it’s about how confident the public feels they’ll turn out. If investors think something is going to be good for the economy (and crypto), prices tend to jump before the event even happens. And if reality doesn’t match the hype? Well, that’s where things get choppy. Let’s break down three America-centric topics that crypto traders are watching closely.

The Fed’s Latest Move: A Pause, Not a Pivot

On June 18, Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve announced that interest rates would stay put at 4.25–4.50%. This wasn’t a huge surprise, but plenty of traders were hoping for a clearer sign that rate cuts are coming soon. Powell made it clear the Fed’s still playing it safe, waiting to see how inflation and the broader economy continue to shape up before making any bold moves.

Crypto’s reaction? Pretty quiet at first. Bitcoin and Ethereum didn’t move much, since most people had already expected the decision. But even a “non-event” like this says a lot, as crypto was hoping to hear some signs that the Fed was at least considering some interest rate changes down the road later this year. Trump, for what it's worth, certainly vocalized his displeasure.

That said, coins like top caps like Bitcoin and Ethereum tend to be more stable in times when mild letdowns are prevailing month after month like they are with interest rates refusing to budge. But some more volatile large caps like Solana and Tron (both heavily associated with meme coins and more speculation from their communities) can swing harder based on hopes for looser monetary policy. If inflation keeps cooling off, and Powell hints at a cut later this year, the opposite can be true, and these could be the coins to suddenly take a flyer on.

Right now, we’re seeing more of a “sell the rumor, buy the news” effect. Expectations were low, so when Powell was at least neutral in his report, holding off on saying anything negative, markets actually breathed a little sigh of relief. But if we go another few months without signs of rate cuts while the U.S. administration continues to call for his head, this could lead to some eventual unrest.

The GENIUS Act: Big Moment for Stablecoins

The GENIUS Act is a brand-new bill passed by the U.S. Senate on June 17, aiming to finally bring some solid rules to the stablecoin space. It’s meant to make sure tokens like USDC and USDT are actually backed by real dollars and supervised by trusted regulators. If it gets through the House too, this would be the first time stablecoins get full federal approval and guidelines.

Traders and companies tied to stablecoins were all over this. Circle, which issues USDC, saw a nice bump in confidence, and its recently launched public stock has continued its inredible pace. Coinbase, a major partner of Circle, also enjoyed a healthy stock jump of over 17%. Ethereum even got a bit of a lift since a lot of stablecoins run on its network. Across the board, the vibe was that clearer rules could open the doors for more institutions to jump into crypto safely.

Not everyone’s throwing a party though. Some in the crypto community are worried the bill is too soft on big players and could benefit folks with political connections more than regular users. There’s chatter that parts of the bill might quietly favor projects linked to the Trump family or others with influence. So while it’s a step forward for regulation, it’s also kicked off a debate over fairness and transparency. Overall, we can see on Santiment's Social Trends that there are a lot more bullish on the GENIUS act (in blue) than there are bearish (in red).

The price action so far suggests we’ve already seen some “buy the rumor, sell the news” behavior. A lot of the gains came in before the Senate vote. Now the market’s waiting to see what the House does. If the bill passes and new partnerships or government-backed pilots follow, there could be another leg up. But if momentum stalls, we might already be near the short-term top.

The “Big Beautiful Bill” and Bitcoin’s Inflation Hedge Narrative

The Big Beautiful Bill, officially called the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, is a massive federal spending package that covers everything from infrastructure and military to tax breaks and incentives. The House passed it in May, and the Senate is still debating final tweaks, supposedly aiming to wrap it up by early July. It’s being promoted as a way to strengthen the economy, but many experts say it could also blow up the federal deficit.

This is where crypto and Bitcoin comes into the picture. Whenever there’s talk of rising debt or more money printing, people start looking for ways to protect their purchasing power. Bitcoin has long been seen as a hedge against inflation, and this bill is fueling that story all over again. On Twitter, Reddit, and even financial podcasts, the narrative is clear as day: “If the government’s going to spend big, I want to hold assets that can’t be inflated.”

Alongside Bitcoin, there’s also been renewed interest in tokens that promote financial sovereignty. Examples of this are Monero (XMR) for privacy and MakerDAO (MKR) for decentralized finance. Even algorithmic stablecoins are relevant as they try to offer alternatives to fiat. Some politically-themed meme coins are getting attention too, but that’s likely more about timing than fundamentals.

This topic is still heavily polarized, with many acknowledging the real-world downside for the poor and benefits for the rich. But for crypto, some have recognized that it does simplify things such as taxation, which has notoriously been a massive headache for US investors and traders. If the final version of the bill includes crypto-specific taxes or regulations as many are speculating, it could make it easier to trade for many.

So… What Really Moves Prices? The News or the Crowd?

At the end of the day, it’s not just the decisions being made in Washington that affect crypto... it’s how the retail crowd reacts to them, and often before any final decisions are made. Traders, especially big players (aka whales), are constantly trying to read the room. If they sense the crowd is excited, they’ll ride that wave. If they sense fear or hesitation, they might sell into strength and trigger a pullback. That’s why monitoring behavior and sentiment is so crucial.

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in the post are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.