Introduction:

In the latest Santiment live stream, Brian, Director of Marketing, and Maksim Balashevich, CEO of Santiment, dive deep into the latest crypto trends. From market volatility to on-chain data, they provide a fascinating look at how investors can use data to navigate the unpredictable world of crypto. In this blog, we break down the key takeaways from their discussion, offering insights into Bitcoin's current state, the behavior of small holders, and the impact of global events on the crypto market.

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Introduction and Market Outlook:

Brian and Maksim kicked off the discussion by examining the current state of the crypto market. Maksim noted that while long-term prospects (spanning years) appear uncertain, the short-term outlook offers some positive signs. He highlighted that small holders are still accumulating Bitcoin, with no significant liquidation events occurring yet. This ongoing accumulation, especially by smaller wallets, suggests a cautious optimism among retail investors.

Bitcoin Redistribution Analysis:

Maksim shared insights from Santiment’s on-chain data, focusing on the redistribution process of Bitcoin. He explained that the redistribution started around October last year and typically takes about a year to complete. Currently, the data shows that accumulation is happening again, primarily by small wallets. This could indicate a potential danger zone if larger holders do not start accumulating soon. However, there are positive signs in the short term, particularly with Ethereum, where borrowing rates are low, suggesting less speculative activity.

Equities Thriving, Bitcoin Neutral:

Brian pointed out a concerning trend: while equities and gold are thriving, Bitcoin remains stuck in neutral. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a consistent correlation with stocks, but this trend seems to be diverging. The S&P 500 is nearing an all-time high, yet Bitcoin is not following suit. This divergence could be a red flag, indicating that money is flowing into altcoins rather than Bitcoin, which might not bode well for long-term stability.

US Presidential Debate and CPI Report Impact:

Brian emphasized the impact of recent global events, such as the US presidential debate and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, on the crypto markets. The debate and the subsequent CPI report had significant effects on market sentiment, with equities and gold seeing substantial gains. However, Bitcoin's response was muted, further highlighting its current divergence from traditional markets.

Sentiment Analysis: Dramatic Shifts and Altcoin Focus:

The discussion also touched on the recent altcoin rally. Brian noted that despite the significant rebounds in many altcoins, overall trading volume has dropped by 32% compared to the previous week. This suggests that traders are not fully convinced by the current rally. Additionally, funding rates for Bitcoin and Ethereum are showing a bearish bias, with more short positions being taken. This contradiction between bullish sentiment on social media and bearish trading behavior highlights the market's current uncertainty.

Miner Capitulation: Bullish Sign?:

Maksim shared data on whale and shark accumulation patterns, revealing that wallets holding at least 10 BTC have accumulated approximately 65,000 BTC over the past six months. This indicates a 0.41% increase in their total holdings. Meanwhile, stablecoin holdings are decreasing, suggesting that these large holders are swapping stablecoins for Bitcoin. This trend could be a positive sign for Bitcoin's price stability in the short term.

Bullish vs Bearish Narratives:

The live stream also explored social media trends and sentiment analysis. Brian highlighted that discussions about Bitcoin on platforms like Reddit, Telegram, and Twitter have decreased significantly. However, there is a slight bullish bias in the sentiment, with more positive comments compared to negative ones. This mixed sentiment reflects the market's current state of cautious optimism.

Total Holders: Bitcoin vs Ethereum:

The analysis compared the total number of holders for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bitcoin's non-empty wallets have grown by about 624,000 BTC over the past two months, indicating steady accumulation. In contrast, Ethereum has shown a constant uphill growth pattern, driven by its various use cases and Layer 2 solutions. This ongoing accumulation suggests strong long-term confidence in Ethereum's value proposition.

XRP Trust Announcement and Market Reaction:

Brian discussed the recent announcement by Grayscale about launching the first official XRP trust in the US. This news has generated significant discussion and speculation about the potential for an XRP ETF. While XRP's price has not shown a significant reaction yet, this could be a "buy the rumor, sell the news" situation, where the actual announcement might lead to a temporary price spike followed by a correction.

MVRV Ratio Analysis:

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio for Bitcoin and Ethereum was analyzed to gauge potential buy signals. Bitcoin's 30-day MVRV is just barely negative, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish outlook. Ethereum's MVRV ratios, both short-term and long-term, suggest more upside potential compared to Bitcoin. This analysis indicates that Ethereum might offer better buying opportunities if the market stabilizes.

VELO Analysis:

The live stream also included an analysis of VELO, a lesser-known asset that has shown significant price movements recently. Despite a recent dip, the negative sentiment around VELO suggests a potential buying opportunity. The crowd's fear and uncertainty could indicate that the asset is undervalued, making it an interesting candidate for speculative traders.

Final Thoughts:

Short-Term Bullish, Long-Term Caution: In conclusion, Brian and Maksim summarized their outlook for the crypto market. They noted that while the short-term sentiment appears bullish, driven by recent altcoin rallies and positive social media sentiment, the long-term outlook remains cautious. The behavior of small holders and the potential for miner capitulation are key factors to watch. Investors should stay informed and leverage data-driven insights to navigate the complex and ever-changing crypto landscape.

Conclusion:

With crypto markets as unpredictable as ever, the importance of data-driven insights cannot be overstated. Whether you’re following Bitcoin’s rise or keeping an eye on Ethereum, Santiment’s tools provide the information you need to stay ahead of the curve. Be sure to check out Santiment platform for more in-depth analysis and tune in to the next live stream for the latest updates. Stay informed, stay cautious, and leverage data to make better investment decisions in the ever-evolving world of crypto.

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